供应中断事件前后石油价格变化分析

突发事件造成的重大石油供应中断前后油价的变化取决于:供应中断的规模、直接供应中断恢复的时间、突发事件有无引发其他事件造成新的供应中断的可能、欧佩克对待供应中断的态度和国际社会对突发事件的干预等因素。欧佩克对各类供应中断均会作出增产决定,其总产量将达到甚至超过突发事件前的总产量。产油国战争或罢工结束时的油价基本和突发事件前相当,战争或罢工事件结束对油价的影响作用结束。革命结束时的油价要高于革命前,革命事件对油价仍有一定的影响。     

Managing relationships in the Tourism Supply Chain to overcome epidemic outbreaks: The case of COVID-19 and the hospitality industry in Spain

The rapid spatial diffusion of the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak has resulted in the total economic disruption of the Tourism Supply Chain (TSC) causing a significant reduction in revenue and creating liquidity issues for all operators. Firms in TSC are linked to each other in complex patterns, leading one risk to another. The purpose of this article is to understand the role of relationship management between hotel chains and their key TSC agents in order to overcome economic disruptions caused by epidemic outbreaks. Among the main contributions of this article are the identification of governments, tour operators, and competitors as the key relationships to be managed by hospitality firms. In addition, key areas for coordination with these actors are explored. Finally, the objectives of relationship management according to the partner are also addressed.     

Understanding conflicting views of endocrine disruptor experts: a pilot study using argumentation analysis

Abstract

To what extent do substances have the potential to cause adverse health effects through an endocrine mode of action? This question elicited intense debates between endocrine disrupting substances (EDS) experts. The pervasive nature of the underlying differences of opinion justifies a systematic analysis of the argumentation put forward by the experts involved. Two scientific publications pertaining to EDS science were analyzed using pragma-dialectical argumentation theory (PDAT). PDAT’s methodology allowed us to perform a maximally impartial and systematic analysis. Using PDAT, the structure of the argumentation put forward in both publications was reconstructed, main standpoints, and arguments were identified, underlying unexpressed premises were made explicit and major differences in starting points were uncovered. The five differences in starting points identified were subdivided into two categories: interpretative ambiguity about underlying scientific evidence and normative ambiguity about differences in broader norms and values. Accordingly, two differences in starting points were explored further using existing risk and expert role typologies. We emphasize that particularly the settlement of normative ambiguity, through the involvement of broader ethical, social or political values, inherently requires multi-stakeholder approaches. Extrapolation of our findings to the broader discussion on EDS science and further exploration of the roles of EDS experts in policy processes should follow from further research.     

Predicting the future of disruptive technologies: The method of alternative histories

With digital technologies shaping competition in many industries, predicting the future of potentially disruptive technologies becomes an essential task of business leaders concerned with the survival and success of their organizations. Looking into the future of disruptive technologies requires a philosophical stance and a practical method that accommodates the inherent uncertainty and nonlinearity of the path of disruptive innovations. Unfortunately, much of the current thinking in relation to adoption and diffusion of innovations is rather linear and deterministic. This article proposes a set of philosophical principles, together with a practical brainstorming method, for glimpsing into the future of disruptive technologies. The method of alternative histories is based on the traditional brainstorming techniques and the philosophical ideas of Imre Lakatos, Roy Bhaskar, Bruno Latour, and Nassim Taleb.     

Strong–weak collaborative management in coping supply chain disruption risk transmission based on scale-free networks

Supply chain disruption causes tremendous loss to supply chains and global businesses. Organizational structure and operational features of supply chain networks, therefore, constitute a major portion of research for coping with supply chain disruption risk. This article first discusses the theoretical foundation, analyses the strength theory of strong and weak ties and the collaborative theory of strong and weak ties. Also, research methods are explicated; the scale-free networks and the theory of strong ties are integrated; the features of supply chain networks are considered from single statistical parameters and comprehensive analyses. Next, we provide numeric simulation of the properties of supply chain networks, verifying the accuracy of parameter analyses of single statistics and comprehensive analyses. Ultimately, when coping with supply chain disruption risk, each node enterprise of supply chain network is supposed to deploy the characteristics of scale-free networks to systematically manage existing weak ties, weak ties newly introduced, existing strong ties and strong ties newly introduced. This study is conducive to node enterprises of supply chains to recognize and apply the scale-free networks and the strength theory of ties to analyze the properties of supply chain networks, and to improve the capacity to cope with disruption risk.     

供应中断下双源采购的供应链契约设计

考虑由一个制造商和两个供应商构成的两级供应链契约设计问题,将可靠性服从随机分布的供应商作为主供应商,将完全中断供应商作为次供应商,建立以利润最大化为目标的签约和执行两阶段博弈的动态规划模型,得到制造商的最优契约设计。制造商根据产品零售价格的变化灵活做出只与一个供应商签约、与两个供应商同时签约或都不签约的决定,供应商根据契约设计内容决定自己的最优生产规模。研究表明：供应商最优生产规模与产品的单位生产成本呈负相关,与单位变动支付和单位惩罚成本呈正相关;次供应商的订货量与其本身的可靠性呈正相关,与主供应商的可靠性呈负相关;供应商的固定支付与其相应的可靠性呈负相关。     

Strategy shift: Integrating strategy and the firm’s capability to innovate

Innovation is a key source of organizational growth and profitability. Many organizations at the front end of innovation struggle to engender an innovation approach that is effective and lasting. This article presents a framework that defines the interdependency of innovation and strategy, and then outlines the role of top management to continuously renew the positioning of the firm. Based on a synthesis of prior research—including the Dynamic Capabilities View, Innovation Orientation, and Disruptive Innovation Theory—and our own experience working with organizations, we present an operational strategy shift framework, which allows practitioners to increase, refine, and transform their firm’s capability to innovate (CTI) toward achieving their strategic objectives. This framework provides guidance that leaders can use to integrate innovation into their strategic process.     

The impact of supply disruption risk on a retailer’s pricing and procurement strategies in the presence of a substitute product

Retailers often experience stockouts when a supplier fails to deliver an order. In this paper, we identify the optimal procurement policy of a multi-product retailer in the presence of possible supply disruptions. Our analysis reveals that, in anticipation of potential supply disruptions, a retailer would typically benefit from ordering more units from a reliable supplier and fewer units from an unreliable one. Furthermore, the total number of units ordered may increase when there is supply disruption risk. As a result, the retailer may overstock some items. However, there are situations in which a retailer would optimally respond to supply uncertainty by consolidating its selling strategy around the unreliable supplier’s product. Under such a strategy, we find the surprising result that the retailer reduces the amount it orders from a reliable supplier as an unreliable seller becomes even less reliable. We also explore how supply disruptions can affect a retailer’s optimal pricing strategy. We find that under certain conditions, it is beneficial for a retailer to lower its price of a substitute product when one supplier fails to deliver its product. Finally, we find that, on net, consumers may benefit from supply uncertainty even though supply disruptions eliminate access to a desirable product.     

Resilience toward supply disruptions: A stochastic inventory control model with partial backordering under the base stock policy

This paper examines supply-side disruptions using an inventory management framework to gain insights into the economic performance of buyers who use two conventional costing strategies – end-of-cycle and continuous. The proposed model assumes that a single supplier faces full disruptions with a probability, and therefore, fails to procure all the items ordered. Accordingly, the buyer experiences unmet demand, which is assumed to be partially backordered. To make proper replenishment decisions, two base stock (S,T) periodic review optimization models are developed. The objective functions minimize the expected long-run total costs (i.e., ordering, holding, and shortage). After proving their convexity and obtaining the optimal decisions, computational experiments were carried out to investigate the impacts of the change in parameters. The results highlight the importance of selecting a suitable ratio for backorders during supply disruptions, as it leads to lower costs and reduces the inventory obsolescence and overstocking risks. Moreover, the managerial insights derived from this study aid retailers to make better replenishment decisions (in terms of level and frequency) and to be more resilient in times of disruptions. Retailers can benefit from the provided solution algorithm as a computational application.